Nigeria's Public Debt Growth: Buhari Vs Tinubu — 2026

  Nigeria's Public Debt Growth: Buhari Vs Tinubu — 2026

Nigeria’s rising public debt has become one of the most defining economic issues of the last decade. From the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023) to that of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (2023–present), the country’s borrowing profile has expanded dramatically, sparking debate among economists, policymakers, and citizens alike.

As of 2026, Nigeria stands at a fiscal crossroads—balancing development needs with debt sustainability. This newspaper provides a deep, investigative comparison of how Nigeria’s public debt evolved under Buhari and how it is transforming under Tinubu.

CHAPTER ONE: UNDERSTANDING NIGERIA’S DEBT STRUCTURE

Public debt refers to the total amount of money owed by a government to creditors, both domestic and foreign. In Nigeria’s case, this includes:

Domestic debt (Treasury bills, bonds)

External debt (loans from World Bank, China, IMF, Eurobonds)

Debt is not inherently bad—it can finance infrastructure, stimulate growth, and stabilize economies. However, excessive borrowing without sufficient revenue can lead to fiscal distress.

By 2026, Nigeria’s debt crisis is less about how much is borrowed, and more about how it is managed and repaid.

CHAPTER TWO: BUHARI ERA (2015–2023) — THE FOUNDATION OF MODERN DEBT EXPANSION

Debt Growth Overview

When Muhammadu Buhari assumed office in 2015, Nigeria’s public debt stood at approximately:

₦12.06 trillion (2015)

By the end of his tenure in 2023:

₦87 trillion+ �

Pan African Review

This represents a 600% increase in just 8 years, marking one of the fastest debt expansions in Nigeria’s history.

Why Buhari Borrowed Heavily

1. Infrastructure Push

Buhari prioritized large-scale projects:

Railways (Abuja–Kaduna, Lagos–Ibadan)

Roads and bridges

Power sector investments

These projects required long-term financing, often sourced externally.

2. Oil Price Collapse

Between 2015 and 2017, global oil prices fell sharply. Since Nigeria relies heavily on oil revenue, this created a fiscal gap.

3. Budget Deficits

Annual deficits rose significantly:

From ₦0.88 trillion to ₦13.78 trillion �

Pan African Review

Borrowing became the primary way to finance government spending.

4. COVID-19 Impact

The pandemic further reduced revenue and increased spending needs, accelerating borrowing.

Criticism of Buhari’s Debt Strategy

Critics argue that:

Debt grew faster than GDP

Revenue generation remained weak

Debt servicing consumed large portions of income

Supporters, however, claim:

Borrowing funded visible infrastructure

Debt-to-GDP ratio remained moderate

CHAPTER THREE: TRANSITION — WHAT TINUBU INHERITED (2023)

When Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023:

Nigeria’s debt stood at approximately ₦87 trillion �

Vanguard News

Rapid currency depreciation inflated debt figures

Revenue remained low relative to obligations

Additionally:

Debt per citizen had surged significantly during Buhari’s tenure �

afronomicslaw.org

Tinubu inherited not just a large debt stock—but a fragile fiscal structure.

CHAPTER FOUR: TINUBU ERA (2023–2026) — REFORMS AND RAPID EXPANSION

Current Debt Status (2025–2026)

By late 2025:

₦153.29 trillion total debt �

TheCable

Equivalent to over $103 billion �

Finance in Africa

This marks a massive increase in just two years.

Key Drivers of Debt Growth Under Tinubu

1. Exchange Rate Devaluation

The naira’s depreciation significantly inflated external debt when converted to local currency.

2. Aggressive Borrowing Plans

Proposed loans exceeding ₦17 trillion for 2026 �

The Sun

External borrowing plans worth over $21 billion �

Arise News

3. Budget Expansion

The 2026 budget:

₦58.18 trillion total size

₦23.85 trillion deficit �

Reuters

Deficits continue to drive borrowing.

4. Debt Servicing Burden

Nigeria is projected to spend:

Over ₦91 trillion on debt servicing (2023–2028) �

Real Estate in Nigeria

This raises concerns about sustainability.

Tinubu’s Fiscal Reforms

Despite rising debt, Tinubu’s administration has introduced major reforms:

✔️ Fuel Subsidy Removal

Freed up government funds but increased inflation initially.

✔️ Tax Reforms

Efforts to expand revenue base.

✔️ Oil Revenue Reforms

New policies require all oil revenues to go directly into government accounts �

Reuters

✔️ Debt Transparency Measures

Officials argue Nigeria is not among the world’s most indebted nations �

Punch Newspapers

CHAPTER FIVE: BUHARI VS TINUBU — SIDE-BY-SIDE COMPARISON

Indicator

Buhari (2015–2023)

Tinubu (2023–2026)

Starting Debt

₦12.06 trillion

₦87 trillion

Latest Debt

₦87 trillion

₦153 trillion+

Growth Rate

~600% increase

Rapid surge in 2–3 years

Key Driver

Infrastructure + deficits

Currency + reforms + deficits

Revenue Strategy

Oil-dependent

Tax + oil reforms

Debt Concern

Rising but manageable

Sustainability & servicing pressure

CHAPTER SIX: THE REAL PROBLEM — REVENUE, NOT JUST DEBT

Economists emphasize:

Nigeria’s biggest challenge is low revenue, not just high debt.

Key issues include:

Poor tax collection

Oil theft and underproduction

Large informal economy

Even moderate debt becomes dangerous when:

Government earns too little

Debt servicing consumes most revenue

CHAPTER SEVEN: IMPACT ON NIGERIANS

1. Rising Cost of Living

Debt-driven policies often lead to:

Higher taxes

Inflation

Reduced subsidies

2. Limited Public Services

More funds go to debt repayment instead of:

Education

Healthcare

Infrastructure

3. Currency Pressure

Heavy borrowing weakens investor confidence and pressures the naira.

CHAPTER EIGHT: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Despite rising debt:

Nigeria is not among the world’s most indebted countries �

Punch Newspapers

However:

Debt servicing ratio is among the highest globally

This makes Nigeria’s situation uniquely risky

CHAPTER NINE: FUTURE OUTLOOK (2026 AND BEYOND)

Projections suggest:

Debt could reach ₦180–₦190 trillion if borrowing continues �

Punch Newspapers

Fiscal deficit remains high

Reforms may improve revenue gradually

Best-Case Scenario

Increased tax revenue

Improved oil production

Stable exchange rate

Worst-Case Scenario

Debt servicing exceeds revenue

Increased borrowing cycle

Economic instability

CHAPTER TEN: EXPERT OPINIONS

Optimists Say:

Reforms will strengthen fiscal health

Debt is necessary for growth

Nigeria still has borrowing capacity

Critics Say:

Borrowing is too fast

Revenue reforms are too slow

Future generations will bear the burden

EDITORIAL: A TALE OF TWO STRATEGIES

Buhari built the foundation of Nigeria’s modern debt profile through infrastructure-driven borrowing. Tinubu, on the other hand, is attempting to restructure the system while still borrowing heavily.

The key difference lies in approach:

Buhari borrowed to build

Tinubu borrows while reforming

Yet both administrations face the same core challenge:

Nigeria spends more than it earns.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria’s debt story from Buhari to Tinubu is not simply about numbers—it is about economic structure, governance, and sustainability.

From ₦12 trillion in 2015 to over ₦150 trillion by 2025, the trajectory is clear: debt is rising fast.

The real question for 2026 and beyond is:

Can Nigeria grow its revenue faster than its debt?

Until that question is answered, the debate over Buhari vs Tinubu will continue—but the burden will ultimately fall on the Nigerian people.